Mortara Research Seminar – A Conversation with Professor Nicholas Kerr

By Soumya Bodhanapu (SFS ‘29) –

On Monday, March 3rd, 2026, the Mortara Center for International Studies had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Nicholas Kerr, Associate Professor at the University of Florida, studying comparative politics with a regional focus on sub-Saharan Africa. Dr. Kerr presented his working paper, titled “Safeguarding Electoral Integrity During Contentious Elections: Popular Assessments of State Electoral Security Provision in Non-Consolidated Democracies,” examining how state security influences democratic attitudes in an electoral context. This event was hosted through the Mortara Research Seminar, a forum for visiting scholars of Comparative Politics and International Relations to present working papers and receive feedback from the Georgetown research community.

This project, co-authored by Dr. Annekatrin Deglow and Hanne Fjelde of Uppsala University, was inspired by the 2011 Nigerian elections, which emphasized the paradoxical relationship between state security action and democratic attitudes. As the apparatus responsible for protecting electoral legitimacy while simultaneously posing a threat to citizens, this research aims to uncover if and how state security behavior shapes public opinion. To determine this correlation, the authors utilize a randomized survey method which varies the hypothetical attributes of an electoral transgression in a multi-factorial vignette to determine perceptions of appropriate state action and democratic legitimacy in five states of Nigeria. Variations in response are recorded in a regression model to estimate Average Marginal Component Effects (AMCEs) per attribute adjusted.

Their findings show significant deviations in public perceptions of government based on police response to electoral transgressions. Namely, Nigerian citizens prefer excessive force from coercive state agents compared to complete inaction, and specifically those with weak ties to the regime in power experience greater fluctuations in democratic attitudes. These results suggest an expectation from citizens of non-consolidated democracies, for state security forces to preserve electoral legitimacy through any means possible despite low levels of trust in police. Their work contributes to research regarding non-consolidated democracies by asserting that perceptions of state security are positively correlated with regime legitimacy, and police action to secure electoral situations indicates a consolidation of power which improves trust in emerging democratic systems compared to total absence of regulation.

Professor Kerr concluded the presentation with a Q&A session, in which the academics present spoke up regarding feedback and concerns. Their thoughtful insights regarding potential sample selection bias illuminated the impact of cultural, political, and personal experiences on perceptions of government and what constitutes ‘legitimate force.’